Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | USI -275 LR +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USI -11.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -8.3 (-1.3) | 157.7 (-16.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -9.3 (-2.3) | 153.0 (-12.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -8.5 (-1.5) | 156.8 (-15.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -9.1 (-2.1) | 157.6 (-16.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LR 89 – 70 USI |
| Dec 19, 2025 | LR 77 – 62 USI |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LR 74 – 56 USI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LR 78 – 58 USI |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LR 80 – 62 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 80.9 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#246) | -11.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#256) | -2.29 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#257) | -2.77 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#267) | 0.357 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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