And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
Liberty Flames
72 – 54
FINAL Conference
North Alabama Lions
Atlantic Sun Conference · Liberty Arena (VA) · January 13, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -17.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money LIB -1600 / UNA +1100
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual LIB +18 126 Won
Massey LIB -19.6 (-1.6) — —
Massey Totals — 140.4 (-14.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 90% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LIB -17.2 (+0.8) 141.6 (-15.6) 89% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIB -17.2 (+0.8) 141.5 (-15.5) 89% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -15.6 (+2.4) 141.7 (-15.7) 90% ✓
Baseline ML LIB -17.3 (+0.7) 142.1 (-16.1) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 28, 2022 LIB 72 – 53 UNA
Mar 7, 2021 LIB 79 – 75 UNA
Feb 23, 2021 LIB 74 – 54 UNA
Feb 22, 2021 LIB 74 – 54 UNA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIB UNA
Overall 27-9 18-15
Conference 15-3 10-8
Home 19-1 9-4
Away 6-7 8-10
Neutral 2-1 1-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 72.6 71.8
Avg Pts Against 62.3 76.5
Massey 7.9 (#69) -7.7 (#304)
Bradley-Terry 0.91 (#93) -0.57 (#232)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.20 (#92) -1.26 (#271)
RPI 0.543 (#103) 0.458 (#256)
Shooting & Four Factors LIB UNA
FG% 45.7% 43.9%
3PT% 38.0% 34.1%
REB / G 31.6 33.4
OREB / G 7.1 8.4
AST / TO 1.48 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.6% 49.3%
TOV% 17.2% 16.0%
ORB% 22.4% 23.6%
FT Rate 16.6% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 54.6%
Opp TOV% 20.5% 15.7%
DRB% 78.8% 73.9%
Opp FT Rate 21.8% 23.1%

Game Analysis

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