Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +5 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.6 (+5.6) | 148.7 (+30.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -0.7 (+5.7) | 146.9 (+32.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -0.5 (+5.5) | 147.5 (+31.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -0.7 (+5.7) | 148.5 (+30.5) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | SF 82 – 65 PORT |
| Jan 5, 2026 | SF 73 – 68 PORT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SF 81 – 72 PORT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SF 72 – 51 PORT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SF 76 – 64 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#162) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#214) | 0.75 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#201) | 0.87 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#223) | 0.514 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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