Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SF -310 PORT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SF -5.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -3.9 (+13.1) | 143.5 (+3.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -6.6 (+10.4) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.3 (+12.7) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -3.9 (+13.1) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2026 | SF 73 – 68 PORT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SF 81 – 72 PORT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SF 72 – 51 PORT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SF 76 – 64 PORT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SF 96 – 69 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#126) | -0.14 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#116) | -0.18 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#185) | 0.491 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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