Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SF -2000 PORT +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +27 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SF -22.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -17.6 (+9.4) | 143.0 (+22.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -18.4 (+8.6) | 143.5 (+21.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -19.8 (+7.2) | 143.3 (+21.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -19.5 (+7.5) | 141.9 (+23.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | SF 82 – 65 PORT |
| Jan 5, 2026 | SF 73 – 68 PORT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SF 81 – 72 PORT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SF 72 – 51 PORT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SF 76 – 64 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#48) | -8.5 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#58) | -0.94 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#53) | -1.08 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#70) | 0.453 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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