Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SF -1600 PORT +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SF -16.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -14.3 (+6.7) | 143.9 (-20.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -13.7 (+7.3) | 143.4 (-20.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -13.9 (+7.1) | 144.0 (-21.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -14.2 (+6.8) | 145.5 (-22.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | SF 82 – 65 PORT |
| Jan 5, 2026 | SF 73 – 68 PORT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SF 81 – 72 PORT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SF 76 – 64 PORT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | SF 96 – 69 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#68) | -8.1 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#81) | -0.79 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#89) | -0.93 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#110) | 0.462 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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