Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA +150 LONG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +8 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -1.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-43.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.4 (+10.4) | 142.8 (-42.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.8 (+10.8) | 139.9 (-39.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -1.5 (+9.5) | 144.0 (-44.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.1 (+10.1) | 144.2 (-44.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#211) | 3.6 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#152) | 0.20 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#172) | 0.24 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#145) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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