Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
85 82 OT
FINAL Neutral Conference Big South
Longwood Lancers
Big South Conference · Freedom Hall (TN) (Neutral) · March 6, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread LONG -1.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money UNCA -102 / LONG -118
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNCA win
Actual UNCA +3 167 Won
Massey UNCA -1.2 (+1.8)
Massey Totals 143.6 (+23.4)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 62%
Efficiency Plus ML UNCA -0.8 (+2.2) 138.4 (+28.6) 57%
Baseline Tuned ML UNCA -1.1 (+1.9) 139.1 (+27.9) 56%
Baseline ML UNCA -1.6 (+1.4) 141.6 (+25.4) 55%
Baseline Plus ML UNCA -1.6 (+1.4) 140.2 (+26.8) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 13, 2026 UNCA 7974 LONG
Jan 7, 2026 UNCA 7261 LONG
Feb 22, 2025 UNCA 8782 LONG
Jan 9, 2025 LONG 8576 UNCA
Mar 10, 2024 LONG 8559 UNCA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNCA LONG
Overall 15-17 16-16
Conference 8-8 8-8
Home 8-7 11-4
Away 4-9 4-10
Neutral 3-1 1-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.9 75.9
Avg Pts Against 74.2 76.2
Massey -4.6 (#241) -5.9 (#260)
Bradley-Terry -0.98 (#253) -1.31 (#284)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.02 (#244) -1.51 (#280)
RPI 0.495 (#199) 0.440 (#304)
Shooting & Four Factors UNCA LONG
FG% 45.1% 44.4%
3PT% 35.1% 32.0%
REB / G 33.6 36.1
OREB / G 10.1 12.0
AST / TO 0.86 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 50.0%
TOV% 17.4% 19.4%
ORB% 30.1% 34.1%
FT Rate 26.3% 30.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.6% 53.7%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 19.8%
DRB% 69.0% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 28.5%

Game Analysis

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