Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -102 LONG -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -1.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.4 (+1.6) | 140.8 (+26.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.6 (+2.4) | 139.9 (+27.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.9 (+2.1) | 139.0 (+28.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.0 (+2.0) | 140.9 (+26.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LONG 85 – 59 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#241) | -5.9 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#253) | -1.31 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#244) | -1.51 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#199) | 0.440 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.