Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -175 LONG +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +26 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -0.8 (-26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.1 (-27.1) | 143.5 (+0.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.2 (-26.2) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.9 (-26.9) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.0 (-27.0) | 141.8 (+2.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#160) | -0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#127) | -0.23 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#131) | -0.39 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#79) | 0.493 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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