Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -165 LONG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -2.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.1 (+1.9) | 156.5 (+12.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.1 (+1.9) | 152.3 (+16.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.8 (+2.2) | 153.3 (+15.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.1 (+1.9) | 155.2 (+13.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LONG 85 – 59 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#199) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#116) | -0.09 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#127) | -0.16 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#62) | 0.496 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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