Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -148 LONG +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -7.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.8 (+7.2) | 140.8 (-7.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -4.0 (+7.0) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.7 (+7.3) | 144.1 (-11.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.0 (+8.0) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LONG 85 – 59 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#239) | -8.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#262) | -1.58 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#248) | -1.74 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#256) | 0.419 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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