Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -190 UNCA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +9 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -5.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -3.2 (+5.8) | 151.0 (+10.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -3.7 (+5.3) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -3.4 (+5.6) | 150.4 (+10.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -3.7 (+5.3) | 151.8 (+9.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCA 79 – 74 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LONG 85 – 59 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#190) | -2.8 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#181) | 0.09 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#181) | 0.09 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#223) | 0.526 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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