Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -142 UNCA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -0.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.6 (-4.4) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.3 (-5.3) | 140.0 (+13.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.5 (-4.5) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.7 (-4.3) | 140.7 (+12.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UNCA 85 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNCA 72 – 61 LONG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCA 87 – 82 LONG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | LONG 85 – 76 UNCA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LONG 85 – 59 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#269) | -3.1 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#294) | -0.93 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#291) | -0.94 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#317) | 0.479 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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