Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NWST -400 MCN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -10.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -9.8 (+4.2) | 139.4 (+24.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -8.8 (+5.2) | 142.4 (+21.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -7.6 (+6.4) | 141.0 (+23.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -8.1 (+5.9) | 141.0 (+23.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MCN 75 – 64 NWST |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MCN 92 – 54 NWST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | MCN 83 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MCN 65 – 50 NWST |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MCN 92 – 69 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#216) | -8.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#142) | -1.52 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#192) | -2.04 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#132) | 0.479 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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