Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -7.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -5.5 (+3.5) | 153.9 (+23.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.9 (+3.1) | 156.1 (+20.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -5.2 (+3.8) | 157.2 (+19.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.5 (+3.5) | 154.7 (+22.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MICH 71 – 68 IOWA |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MICH 85 – 83 IOWA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | IOWA 88 – 78 MICH |
| Dec 10, 2023 | MICH 90 – 80 IOWA |
| Mar 4, 2022 | IOWA 82 – 71 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | 7.5 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#53) | 1.06 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#53) | 1.93 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#71) | 0.547 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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