Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -1.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -0.6 (-11.6) | 155.6 (-2.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.5 (-11.5) | 153.3 (-0.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -0.5 (-11.5) | 156.0 (-3.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -0.5 (-11.5) | 156.4 (-3.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MICH 71 – 68 IOWA |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MICH 85 – 83 IOWA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | IOWA 88 – 78 MICH |
| Dec 10, 2023 | MICH 90 – 80 IOWA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | IOWA 93 – 84 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#31) | 16.2 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#43) | 2.23 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#40) | 2.92 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#43) | 0.583 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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