Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -600 IOWA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -8.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -6.3 (-4.3) | 147.1 (+20.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -6.0 (-4.0) | 152.1 (+15.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -5.1 (-3.1) | 151.2 (+16.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -4.9 (-2.9) | 148.0 (+20.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MICH 71 – 68 IOWA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | IOWA 88 – 78 MICH |
| Dec 10, 2023 | MICH 90 – 80 IOWA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | IOWA 93 – 84 MICH |
| Mar 4, 2022 | IOWA 82 – 71 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#28) | 9.8 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#19) | 2.85 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.69 (#19) | 4.57 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#18) | 0.601 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 13.4% |
Game Analysis
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