Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -175 MICH +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +10 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -10.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -6.5 (-16.5) | 156.4 (+13.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -6.7 (-16.7) | 158.6 (+11.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -7.6 (-17.6) | 160.5 (+9.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -6.8 (-16.8) | 158.4 (+11.6) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MICH 71 – 68 IOWA |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MICH 85 – 83 IOWA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | IOWA 88 – 78 MICH |
| Jan 13, 2023 | IOWA 93 – 84 MICH |
| Mar 4, 2022 | IOWA 82 – 71 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#36) | 6.4 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#81) | 0.32 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#74) | 0.85 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#57) | 0.546 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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