Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UIW +140 NOLA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -4.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -3.0 (-9.0) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -1.8 (-7.8) | 145.3 (+18.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -2.7 (-8.7) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -3.4 (-9.4) | 148.5 (+15.5) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NOLA 78 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 9, 2025 | NOLA 84 – 83 UIW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | UIW 75 – 65 NOLA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UIW 74 – 58 NOLA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NOLA 87 – 80 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#349) | -13.1 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#323) | -2.97 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#333) | -3.83 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#346) | 0.388 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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