We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Western Athletic Conference · Burns Arena · January 13, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -1.0 Away covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTU win
Actual SFA +13 157 Lost
Massey UTU -4.4 (-17.4)
Massey Totals 149.8 (+7.2)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 64%
Efficiency Plus ML UTU -1.4 (-14.4) 141.8 (+15.2) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML UTU -2.8 (-15.8) 146.4 (+10.6) 64%
Baseline ML UTU -2.6 (-15.6) 147.0 (+10.0) 56%
Baseline Plus ML UTU -2.2 (-15.2) 144.8 (+12.2) 54%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 9, 2024 SFA 8471 UTU
Jan 12, 2024 UTU 7570 SFA
Mar 8, 2023 UTU 8076 SFA
Feb 5, 2022 SFA 8152 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTU SFA
Overall 14-19 19-13
Conference 5-13 11-7
Home 9-5 12-4
Away 3-13 6-5
Neutral 2-1 1-4
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 73.9 74.1
Avg Pts Against 75.0 72.7
Massey 1.2 (#153) 0.8 (#157)
Bradley-Terry 0.04 (#178) 0.39 (#143)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.01 (#180) 0.24 (#155)
RPI 0.511 (#159) 0.503 (#174)
Shooting & Four Factors UTU SFA
FG% 43.3% 45.8%
3PT% 35.3% 37.9%
REB / G 35.2 33.1
OREB / G 10.7 11.5
AST / TO 0.89 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 51.3%
TOV% 20.3% 21.6%
ORB% 30.8% 34.4%
FT Rate 29.0% 28.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 24.6%
DRB% 76.8% 65.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 28.7%

Game Analysis

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