Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +13 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -4.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -1.4 (-14.4) | 141.8 (+15.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -2.8 (-15.8) | 146.4 (+10.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -2.6 (-15.6) | 147.0 (+10.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -2.2 (-15.2) | 144.8 (+12.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2024 | SFA 84 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTU 75 – 70 SFA |
| Mar 8, 2023 | UTU 80 – 76 SFA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SFA 81 – 52 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#153) | 0.8 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#178) | 0.39 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#180) | 0.24 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#159) | 0.503 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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