Stephen F. Austin
Lumberjacks
76
–
80
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires WAC
Utah Tech
Trailblazers
Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -115 UTU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -1.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.6 (-5.6) | 144.8 (+11.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.6 (-4.6) | 148.3 (+7.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.0 (-5.0) | 150.2 (+5.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.6 (-4.6) | 148.6 (+7.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2024 | SFA 84 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTU 75 – 70 SFA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | SFA 85 – 72 UTU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SFA 81 – 52 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | 0.6 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#134) | -0.34 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#138) | -0.24 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.470 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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