Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -800 UTU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -10.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -9.4 (+3.6) | 142.4 (+12.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.1 (+3.9) | 143.2 (+11.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -9.3 (+3.7) | 143.4 (+11.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.0 (+3.0) | 142.6 (+12.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTU 75 – 70 SFA |
| Mar 8, 2023 | UTU 80 – 76 SFA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | SFA 85 – 72 UTU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SFA 81 – 52 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | -6.8 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#173) | -0.91 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#151) | -1.05 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#197) | 0.454 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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