Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UTU +188 SFA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -4.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -4.4 (+9.4) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -4.0 (+9.0) | 147.0 (-2.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -4.5 (+9.5) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -4.4 (+9.4) | 148.4 (-3.4) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2024 | SFA 84 – 71 UTU |
| Mar 8, 2023 | UTU 80 – 76 SFA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | SFA 85 – 72 UTU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | SFA 81 – 52 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#266) | 2.7 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#219) | 0.18 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#220) | 0.57 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#197) | 0.490 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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