Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +29 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -12.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.0 (+17.0) | 142.1 (-9.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -10.3 (+18.7) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.3 (+17.7) | 142.0 (-9.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.7 (+18.3) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2024 | SFA 84 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | UTU 75 – 70 SFA |
| Mar 8, 2023 | UTU 80 – 76 SFA |
| Jan 13, 2023 | SFA 85 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#126) | -7.2 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#123) | -0.87 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#126) | -1.20 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#103) | 0.465 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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