Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | KC -110 STMN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | KC -1.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -0.2 (+20.8) | 138.3 (+2.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -1.8 (+19.2) | 135.4 (+5.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -0.4 (+20.6) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -0.5 (+20.5) | 141.3 (-0.3) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | STMN 104 – 64 KC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | STMN 99 – 64 KC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | STMN 65 – 59 KC |
| Jan 26, 2025 | STMN 68 – 65 KC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | STMN 71 – 56 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#217) | 0.0 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | 0.34 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#214) | 0.07 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#205) | 0.493 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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