Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -163 UTM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -5.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.8 (-13.8) | 157.2 (-14.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.9 (-13.9) | 157.1 (-14.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.5 (-13.5) | 155.4 (-12.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.5 (-13.5) | 156.2 (-13.2) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#266) | -6.6 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#294) | -0.91 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#300) | -1.45 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#326) | 0.432 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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