Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | IUIN +850 PFW -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +15 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -14.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -13.4 (-1.6) | 139.4 (-14.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -13.1 (-1.9) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -13.6 (-1.4) | 139.5 (-14.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -12.4 (-2.6) | 140.6 (-15.6) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | PFW 83 – 78 IUIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PFW 91 – 80 IUIN |
| Dec 12, 2024 | PFW 78 – 76 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-11 |
| Home | 4-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 0-15 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -17.2 (#359) | 1.4 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.48 (#357) | 0.30 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.09 (#356) | 0.36 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.332 (#360) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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