I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–20 on winners spread MAE 10.6 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Arkansas +1.3 153.5 55% 84–69 ✗
UConn @ Marquette -2.5 153.6 41% 76–82 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier +3.4 157.9 62% 87–90 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +15.3 141.2 92% 72–88 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +1.2 143.8 54% 71–69 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Duke +8.6 136.7 78% 69–77 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia +5.3 152.8 69% 83–78 ✗
Memphis @ UCF +6.9 136.1 73% 104–107 ✓
Boston University @ Colgate +10.3 152.9 83% 71–77 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +5.4 137.6 69% 58–76 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +11.3 133.3 85% 67–57 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +6.0 134.5 71% 69–61 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse -2.1 140.6 42% 72–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Maine +5.7 132.9 70% 71–58 ✗
Binghamton @ NJIT +5.7 137.7 70% 72–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Bryant +13.1 159.3 88% 69–86 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +6.6 131.4 72% 59–50 ✗
Indiana @ Penn State +0.1 146.4 50% 66–85 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Rhode Island +1.4 130.8 55% 67–68 ✓
Richmond @ Davidson +1.2 134.1 54% 61–57 ✗
La Salle @ Massachusetts +13.5 144.1 89% 78–77 ✗
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's -3.1 145.8 39% 92–80 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop -3.1 144.2 39% 66–52 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian -6.8 120.9 27% 79–78 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern +1.0 161.6 54% 69–106 ✓
Campbell @ South Carolina Upstate +2.6 134.1 59% 78–63 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ VMI -6.4 135.8 28% 72–57 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -2.9 144.6 39% 84–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +9.2 149.2 80% 76–95 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel +2.0 134.7 57% 96–74 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Elon -1.5 146.6 45% 80–71 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +10.1 140.3 82% 65–81 ✓
Towson @ Delaware +0.3 134.2 51% 59–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Hofstra +26.2 144.7 99% 57–77 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley +0.1 152.3 50% 86–103 ✓
South Florida @ Houston +27.6 124.8 99% 77–83 ✓
Tulane @ SMU -0.9 151.7 47% 97–88 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +10.9 122.3 84% 65–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Illinois State -3.8 124.3 37% 66–76 ✗
Evansville @ Bradley +22.0 125.9 98% 46–91 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International -13.6 146.2 11% 77–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Rice +1.4 154.2 55% 71–68 ✗
George Mason @ Saint Louis +5.8 146.2 70% 62–63 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +6.1 143.5 71% 58–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Tarleton State +10.2 139.0 82% 63–73 ✓
Missouri @ Texas A&M +1.5 163.1 55% 64–82 ✓
TCU @ Texas +9.9 143.4 82% 75–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Cincinnati +10.0 141.2 82% 55–83 ✓
Louisville @ Clemson +22.8 139.6 98% 70–83 ✓
Florida State @ Wake Forest +11.0 153.1 84% 75–90 ✓
UTSA @ UTEP +11.3 137.8 85% 57–69 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UAB +14.8 158.4 91% 80–78 ✗
Rutgers @ Northwestern -0.4 114.9 49% 65–62 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist -1.2 131.5 46% 71–67 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge -6.2 141.1 29% 62–54 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +11.3 139.7 85% 65–70 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego -3.1 132.4 39% 74–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.5 118.3 28% 60–48 ✓
California @ Washington State +13.9 123.8 90% 51–66 ✓
Boise State @ UNLV +2.0 130.3 57% 84–66 ✗
Minnesota @ Ohio State +21.9 141.4 98% 70–67 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +4.4 126.6 66% 67–65 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine -0.9 137.1 47% 80–51 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.