Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +100 ETSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +22 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -1.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -1.7 (-23.7) | 137.9 (+32.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.0 (-22.0) | 135.6 (+34.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -1.5 (-23.5) | 138.1 (+31.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -1.2 (-23.2) | 138.6 (+31.4) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#310) | -5.4 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#283) | -2.02 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#281) | -2.40 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#269) | 0.399 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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