Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +550 ETSU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +15 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -14.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -12.3 (-2.7) | 133.2 (+13.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -12.6 (-2.4) | 132.9 (+14.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -12.0 (-3.0) | 133.3 (+13.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -13.0 (-2.0) | 133.6 (+13.4) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ETSU 81 – 63 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-12 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L24 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -16.0 (#358) | 1.2 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.00 (#362) | -0.00 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.39 (#360) | 0.01 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#363) | 0.503 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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