Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +600 ETSU -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +25 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -13.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -11.8 (-13.2) | 138.2 (-15.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -12.5 (-12.5) | 139.0 (-16.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -13.3 (-11.7) | 140.4 (-17.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -12.5 (-12.5) | 138.6 (-15.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ETSU 81 – 63 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#345) | 3.6 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.20 (#362) | -0.49 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.68 (#361) | -0.49 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#360) | 0.466 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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