Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +120 ETSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +18 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -2.4 (-20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.6 (-17.4) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -1.3 (-19.3) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -1.2 (-19.2) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -0.6 (-18.6) | 137.9 (+6.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#236) | -2.8 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#281) | -0.16 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#273) | -0.23 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#298) | 0.492 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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