Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -2500 CIT +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +18 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -20.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -15.5 (+2.5) | 139.5 (-17.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -14.8 (+3.2) | 140.6 (-18.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -16.7 (+1.3) | 141.2 (-19.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -17.2 (+0.8) | 138.7 (-16.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ETSU 81 – 63 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 0-18 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-12 |
| Away | 6-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L24 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#136) | -15.4 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#200) | -3.63 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#182) | -4.16 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#227) | 0.378 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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