Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -2100 CIT +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +29 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -20.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -16.0 (+13.0) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -15.6 (+13.4) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -14.1 (+14.9) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -16.3 (+12.7) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ETSU 81 – 63 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#124) | -14.5 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#167) | -2.38 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#172) | -3.26 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#155) | 0.386 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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