Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -1600 CIT +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -16.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -15.6 (-8.6) | 137.8 (+21.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -13.5 (-6.5) | 140.4 (+18.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -14.3 (-7.3) | 141.7 (+17.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -14.3 (-7.3) | 141.0 (+18.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ETSU 81 – 63 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#135) | -14.4 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#163) | -1.88 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#164) | -2.62 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#121) | 0.411 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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