Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -2500 EVAN +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +45 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -22.4 (+22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -18.8 (+26.2) | 133.5 (+3.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -19.0 (+26.0) | 130.7 (+6.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -17.1 (+27.9) | 132.3 (+4.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -19.7 (+25.3) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BRAD 94 – 90 EVAN |
| Dec 30, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 68 EVAN |
| Feb 9, 2025 | BRAD 80 – 74 EVAN |
| Feb 8, 2024 | EVAN 73 – 70 BRAD |
| Jan 11, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 50 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 1-19 |
| Home | 15-1 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#69) | -10.3 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#97) | -1.63 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#102) | -2.20 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#98) | 0.412 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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