Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +400 BRAD -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -8.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.1 (+9.1) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -8.5 (+11.5) | 142.7 (+0.3) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -5.6 (+8.6) | 143.1 (-0.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.2 (+9.2) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BRAD 94 – 90 EVAN |
| Dec 30, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 68 EVAN |
| Feb 9, 2025 | BRAD 80 – 74 EVAN |
| Jan 11, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 50 EVAN |
| Jan 12, 2023 | BRAD 91 – 46 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#206) | 9.5 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#137) | 1.61 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#160) | 1.84 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#121) | 0.601 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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