Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +270 BRAD -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +4 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -7.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+39.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.4 (+2.4) | 140.6 (+43.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -7.2 (+3.2) | 139.6 (+44.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -6.4 (+2.4) | 138.6 (+45.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.5 (+2.5) | 139.4 (+44.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 68 EVAN |
| Feb 9, 2025 | BRAD 80 – 74 EVAN |
| Feb 8, 2024 | EVAN 73 – 70 BRAD |
| Jan 11, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 50 EVAN |
| Jan 12, 2023 | BRAD 91 – 46 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 14-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#256) | 4.4 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#272) | 0.73 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#254) | 0.81 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#225) | 0.544 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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