Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -800 EVAN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -14.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -11.8 (-3.8) | 143.5 (+0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -13.4 (-5.4) | 143.5 (+0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -12.6 (-4.6) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -12.0 (-4.0) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BRAD 94 – 90 EVAN |
| Feb 9, 2025 | BRAD 80 – 74 EVAN |
| Feb 8, 2024 | EVAN 73 – 70 BRAD |
| Jan 11, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 50 EVAN |
| Jan 12, 2023 | BRAD 91 – 46 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#114) | -6.5 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#123) | -1.49 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#129) | -1.46 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#135) | 0.452 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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