Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +200 BRAD -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -8.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -6.8 (+0.8) | 137.5 (+16.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -6.3 (+0.3) | 135.9 (+18.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.5 (+0.5) | 137.4 (+16.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.4 (+0.4) | 137.2 (+16.8) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BRAD 94 – 90 EVAN |
| Dec 30, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 68 EVAN |
| Feb 8, 2024 | EVAN 73 – 70 BRAD |
| Jan 11, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 50 EVAN |
| Jan 12, 2023 | BRAD 91 – 46 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#257) | 6.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#225) | 1.43 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#222) | 1.37 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#241) | 0.560 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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