Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -800 EVAN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +36 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -8.6 (+27.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -7.5 (+28.5) | 147.7 (-11.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -10.6 (+25.4) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -7.7 (+28.3) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -8.2 (+27.8) | 145.0 (-9.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | BRAD 94 – 90 EVAN |
| Dec 30, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 68 EVAN |
| Feb 9, 2025 | BRAD 80 – 74 EVAN |
| Feb 8, 2024 | EVAN 73 – 70 BRAD |
| Jan 12, 2023 | BRAD 91 – 46 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#97) | 0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#90) | 0.47 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#100) | 0.16 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#53) | 0.531 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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