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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma State
@
Kansas State
|
+6.4 | 140.5 | 72% | 57–65 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Wisconsin
|
+3.8 | 124.5 | 64% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Valparaiso
|
-6.6 | 147.1 | 27% | 74–59 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Notre Dame
|
+2.9 | 134.2 | 60% | 72–73 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Kentucky
|
+19.1 | 134.0 | 96% | 71–68 | ✗ |
Florida
@
LSU
|
-0.7 | 138.4 | 48% | 67–56 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-3.0 | 134.4 | 39% | 78–64 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Fordham
|
-4.4 | 127.2 | 34% | 82–58 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Kent State
|
+10.2 | 158.5 | 82% | 63–75 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Bowling Green
|
-1.4 | 138.3 | 45% | 74–70 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Miami (OH)
|
-3.1 | 160.5 | 39% | 80–91 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Western Michigan
|
+3.8 | 154.3 | 63% | 79–85 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Ohio
|
+1.6 | 147.5 | 56% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
+11.1 | 122.7 | 84% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Iowa State
|
+6.5 | 125.8 | 72% | 50–84 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Tulsa
|
-2.5 | 145.1 | 41% | 76–72 | ✓ |
Drake
@
UIC
|
-6.1 | 132.6 | 29% | 76–71 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+3.8 | 138.4 | 64% | 67–75 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Northern Illinois
|
+0.3 | 134.5 | 51% | 54–73 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Georgetown
|
-8.1 | 141.8 | 23% | 66–51 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Kansas
|
+10.5 | 135.6 | 83% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Tennessee
|
+24.8 | 129.8 | 99% | 68–77 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Virginia
|
+5.6 | 141.2 | 70% | 58–65 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Ole Miss
|
-1.4 | 127.6 | 45% | 82–73 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
DePaul
|
-3.0 | 145.1 | 39% | 65–75 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Nebraska
|
-0.6 | 136.0 | 48% | 76–50 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+6.9 | 135.5 | 73% | 85–74 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
San José State
|
+5.9 | 119.6 | 70% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Utah State
|
+15.7 | 151.3 | 92% | 63–83 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
San Diego State
|
+6.1 | 138.2 | 71% | 65–74 | ✓ |
American University
@
Army
|
-0.6 | 140.9 | 48% | 60–72 | ✗ |
Vermont
@
UMass Lowell
|
+5.0 | 138.4 | 68% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Georgia
|
-2.0 | 120.3 | 43% | 50–58 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.