Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH +150 BUF -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +11 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -2.7 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -2.6 (+13.6) | 154.7 (+16.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.7 (+13.7) | 153.3 (+17.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -2.4 (+13.4) | 156.9 (+14.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -2.2 (+13.2) | 155.5 (+15.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#328) | -2.4 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#329) | -0.13 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#328) | -0.26 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#321) | 0.505 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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