Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -125 M-OH +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +21 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -2.7 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -1.1 (-19.9) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -2.6 (-18.4) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -2.3 (-18.7) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -3.3 (-17.7) | 143.2 (+7.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 4, 2023 | BUF 68 – 63 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-13 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#336) | -4.9 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#353) | -0.84 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#347) | -1.62 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#338) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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