Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +180 M-OH -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -5.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -4.5 (+2.5) | 164.4 (-20.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -5.1 (+3.1) | 164.0 (-20.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -5.1 (+3.1) | 163.8 (-19.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -8.2 (+6.2) | 162.8 (-18.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
| Mar 4, 2023 | BUF 68 – 63 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 32-2 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 18-0 |
| Home | 7-8 | 16-0 |
| Away | 8-6 | 14-0 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 86.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#179) | 7.6 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#153) | 3.88 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#143) | 4.84 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#138) | 0.589 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.