Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -190 UNC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -4.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -4.3 (+2.7) | 140.2 (-17.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -4.9 (+2.1) | 132.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.2 (+2.8) | 141.6 (-18.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.7 (+2.3) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#25) | 11.4 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#21) | 2.18 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#16) | 2.88 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#25) | 0.630 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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