Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -213 UVA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.4 (+5.6) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.5 (+5.5) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.0 (+5.0) | 136.9 (-2.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.8 (+5.2) | 137.4 (-3.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UVA 65 – 58 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#45) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#49) | 2.70 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#43) | 3.28 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#41) | 0.620 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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