Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UVA +120 UNC -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 98 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -5.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-32.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.3 (-6.7) | 130.1 (-32.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.7 (-7.3) | 122.7 (-24.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.3 (-6.7) | 127.2 (-29.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.1 (-6.9) | 129.0 (-31.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UVA 65 – 58 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#68) | 17.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#37) | 2.69 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#56) | 3.66 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#40) | 0.621 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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