Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -290 UNC +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +5 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -6.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.6 (-13.6) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -6.3 (-11.3) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -8.0 (-13.0) | 146.7 (+18.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.9 (-12.9) | 144.9 (+20.1) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UVA 65 – 58 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#16) | 15.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#15) | 2.78 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#17) | 3.37 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#13) | 0.630 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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