Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -125 UNC +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -0.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.0 (+9.0) | 129.9 (-2.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.4 (+8.6) | 127.6 (-0.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.2 (+9.2) | 130.9 (-3.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.1 (+9.1) | 128.8 (-1.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UVA 65 – 58 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#42) | 10.7 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#15) | 1.79 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#15) | 2.40 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#10) | 0.577 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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